Buy or Rent? Here’s What Your Monthly Payment Actually Gets You in 2026

My neighbor texted me last Tuesday at 9:47 PM. “We just got approved for $750K but our rent is only $2,900. Are we crazy to buy right now?”

I see this dilemma playing out every single week in Snohomish County, and here’s what makes it so brutally real in January 2026: that $2,900 three-bedroom rental in South Everett? It’s now buying you almost the exact same monthly payment as owning a $650K home with 10% down. The math that used to make renting the obvious “smart money” move has completely flipped.

But before we dive into numbers that’ll make your head spin, let me be honest about something: this isn’t one of those blog posts where I’m going to pat you on the head and tell you “it depends on your situation.” You already know that. What you need is someone who actually understands what’s happening right now in Mill Creek versus Lake Stevens, who knows why homes near Stevens Creek Elementary are going pending in seven days while condos in downtown Everett are sitting for 41, and who can tell you what that $3,100 rent payment really costs you over five years compared to buying.

The Rent Argument That Actually Makes Sense in 2026

Let’s start with the case for renting because it’s more nuanced than the usual “throwing money away” narrative suggests.

First, the flexibility argument has real teeth right now. Snohomish County’s job market is still heavily tied to Boeing and tech, and if there’s one thing we learned in the past few years, it’s that those industries can pivot fast. When you’re renting that newly renovated townhome in Bothell for $3,200 a month, you’re not tied to a specific ZIP code if your company suddenly decides everyone’s hybrid or relocates teams. You can chase opportunity without agonizing over whether to list your house in a down market.

Second, and this is the part nobody wants to talk about, maintenance costs are crushing homeowners right now. That charming 1982 rambler in Lynnwood with the original roof? You’re looking at $18K-$25K for a replacement. The HVAC system that’s “working fine?” Add another $12K when it finally dies. My clients who bought in late 2023 are already dealing with these surprise expenses, and when you’re stretching to afford the mortgage payment, that emergency roof fund doesn’t exist yet.

Third, renting gives you the freedom to be strategic about where you eventually buy. Right now, homes in the Lake Stevens School District are going pending faster than anywhere else in the county because parents know Stevens Creek Elementary has a 9/10 rating. But what if you’re not sure which neighborhood actually fits your family yet? Renting in Mukilteo for a year lets you figure out if the waterfront lifestyle justifies the premium, or if you’d rather have more square footage in Arlington for $200K less.

And here’s the kicker that renters rarely admit but should: right now, in January 2026, you’re paying $2,800–$3,300 for a three-bedroom house without tying up $60K–$100K in a down payment. That cash can be working for you in other ways, whether that’s building your business, investing differently, or keeping a serious emergency fund that doesn’t involve a HELOC application.

The Buy Argument That’s Actually Different This Time

But here’s where the conversation gets uncomfortable for the “rent forever” crowd: at 6.15% interest rates (where we are right now), your monthly payment on a $650K home with 10% down is about $3,950 including property taxes and insurance. That’s only $650–$1,150 more than rent for the same house, and the math on that gap is wild.

Let me show you what I mean. That $650K house you’re looking at on 132nd Street SE in Mill Creek? In five years, assuming even conservative 3% annual appreciation (we’ve seen 2–5% in Snohomish County depending on location), you’re looking at $103K in equity from appreciation alone. Add in your principal paydown, about $52K over five years, and you’ve built $155K in wealth. Meanwhile, your renting neighbor spent $195K on rent payments with zero to show for it.

But the real gut-punch comes when you look at what’s happening right now in specific pockets of Snohomish County. Homes near Henry M. Jackson High School in Mill Creek are going pending with multiple offers because parents know that school ranks #21 in Washington State. Those neighborhoods near Glacier Peak High School in Snohomish? Selling at premium prices because that 9/10 rating isn’t changing. When you rent, you’re watching these appreciation curves from the sidelines.

And then there’s the stability factor that renters don’t want to acknowledge: rent went up by an average of $400 in the past year in Snohomish. When you lock in a fixed-rate mortgage, your principal and interest payment never changes. In 2031, you’ll still be paying the same $3,950 while your renting friends are probably paying $4,200–$4,500 for that same house.

The inventory situation makes this even more pressing. We’re sitting at 2.4 months of inventory in Snohomish County right now, and that’s tight. Forty-two percent of homes are going pending within the first 30 days. This isn’t the 2022 frenzy where people waived inspections, but it’s definitely a market where clean, well-priced homes in good school districts move fast. When you find the right house in Lake Stevens or Edmonds, hesitation costs you that house. When you’re renting, you can hesitate all day long, you’re just hesitating your way into paying someone else’s mortgage.

The Hidden Costs Nobody’s Talking About

Here’s where both sides get it wrong: they’re not accounting for the real costs.

Renters think they’re avoiding maintenance costs, but they’re forgetting that landlords build those costs into rent, plus profit margin. Your $3,100 rent isn’t just covering the landlord’s mortgage; it’s covering their property management fees, their reserve fund for that roof replacement, their profit margin, and their risk buffer. You’re paying for all of that anyway; you’re just not building equity while you do it.

Buyers, meanwhile, are often not honest about the true monthly cost. That $3,950 mortgage payment? Add another $200–$300 for utilities (which are often higher in a house you own because you’re not splitting costs with other units), $100–$150 for a realistic maintenance fund (1% of home value annually is the rule of thumb), and potentially another $150–$200 for HOA fees if you’re in certain neighborhoods like Harbour Pointe or Silver Firs. Suddenly your “only $650 more than rent” is actually $1,100–$1,400 more.

But here’s what makes Snohomish County different right now: you can actually choose your cost structure. Want to own but keep costs closer to rent? Look at that well-maintained 1995 rambler in south Everett for $550K instead of the newly renovated craftsman in Mill Creek for $750K. Your payment drops by nearly $1,200/month, and you’re still building equity in a neighborhood with solid access to community colleges and the commuter train to Seattle.

What The Data Actually Shows

Let me give you the numbers that matter for Snohomish County in January 2026:

The median home price is $760K, down 2% from last year. Mortgage rates are hovering around 6.15%. Homes are taking 41 days to sell on average—which means this isn’t a panic market, but it’s also not a buyer’s paradise where you have unlimited time to decide.

Meanwhile, three-bedroom rentals are running $2,800–$3,300 in most of South Snohomish County. That’s already comparable to ownership payments when you do the math.

Here’s the calculation that matters: if you’re looking at a $650K home with 10% down ($65K), your monthly payment is roughly $3,950. If you’re renting the same house for $3,100, you’re saving $850/month—but you just tied up $65K in a down payment that could have stayed liquid.

So the question becomes: is building equity (roughly $2,500/month in the first few years between appreciation and principal) worth paying an extra $850/month and having $65K locked up in the property?

For most families looking at a 5+ year timeline, the answer is becoming increasingly clear: yes.

The Personal Decision Only You Can Make

Here’s where I’m supposed to tell you “there’s no right answer” and leave you exactly where you started. But I respect you too much for that.

If you’re looking at less than three years in Snohomish County, rent. The transaction costs of buying and selling (6–8% typically) will eat whatever equity you might build. If your job is volatile or you’re not sure Seattle is your forever home, rent. Flexibility has enormous value that doesn’t show up on a spreadsheet.

But if you’re planning to stay five years or more, have stable income, and can comfortably afford a house payment (not technically afford—comfortably afford with room for life to happen), buying in Snohomish County in 2026 is probably the move. Especially if you’re targeting neighborhoods with strong schools like Lake Stevens, Mill Creek, or Mukilteo where demand stays consistent even when the broader market cools.

The mistake isn’t choosing wrong between renting and buying. The mistake is choosing based on what made sense in 2019 or 2022 instead of what makes sense right now with current rates, current inventory, and current rent prices in your specific situation.

Let’s Talk About Your Specific Situation

Look, I know this is a lot. You’re probably sitting here with a spreadsheet open, calculator out, trying to figure out if that three-bedroom in south Everett is worth pulling the trigger on or if you should renew your lease one more year.

Here’s what I’d suggest: let’s look at your actual numbers. Not generic “what-if” scenarios, but your real income, your real down payment, and the real neighborhoods you’re considering. Because the buy-versus-rent decision in Lake Stevens looks completely different than in Marysville, and what makes sense for a couple with Boeing income looks different than what makes sense for a freelancer with variable earnings.

I’ve walked dozens of families through this exact decision in the past year, and I can tell you that the “right” answer becomes crystal clear once we look at your specific situation—your timeline, your finances, your goals, and which neighborhoods actually fit what you need.

Ready to stop spinning in circles and get real clarity? Let’s schedule a no-pressure conversation where we can look at your numbers, talk through the neighborhoods that might work for you, and figure out whether buying or renting actually makes sense for where you are right now.

Because here’s the truth: the worst decision isn’t buying versus renting. It’s spending another six months agonizing about it while the market keeps moving and rents keep climbing. Let’s get you some answers.

Laura Sinclair
laurasinclairhomes.com
Your Snohomish County Real Estate Guide

What’s your take—are you team “buy now” or team “rent and wait?” Drop a comment below and let’s debate this. I promise I’ll respond to everyone, because this conversation matters way too much to leave vague.